Fellow Baba/9988 shareholders, where are you?
It's not easy to be optimistic being a shareholder of 9988. You are like a hurdler, going through obstacles after obstacles.
1. Tech crack down - Chinese authorities have signaled that they will work with the tech giants to propel the country forward. So that's positive.
2. Delisting fear - looks like the risk is lesser now after an agreement was reached. This is positive as well.
3. USA dropping tariffs on china - Didnt move much, in fact it doesnt seem so positive now after Aunty pelosi's show boating in Taiwan. Negative.
4. Covid lockdowns - I think this is the biggest show stopper here and it doesnt look like the chinese govt is going to drop the covid 0 approach anytime soon. It's beginning to seem like the chinese just want to continue with the approach just to show that they are correct in their approach and not "lose face" to the westerners. They are locking down millions with less than 50 mild positive cases. Did you guys see the shanghai Ikea video? That is crazy. What will happen to the babies or people requiring medication affected by this kind of instant lock down? Politics aside, does this even make sense anymore? If anyone has any alternate views on why China is still practicing such draconian measures, do share. Big negative.
So fellow 9988/baba shareholders , what are u going to do? Continue to hold or start to cut lost? In my June post, I mentioned that the light at the end of the tunnel should be in 6 months time. Not sure if I am that optimistic anymore as the lockdown move seems to be more of face saving that anything else..
Continue to hold and average down. But I’m not holding a lot of 9988.
ReplyDeletethanks for your comments.
DeleteContinue to buy/sell and average down the holdings prices.
DeleteHi it's me, I already held a lot of 9988 so cannot avg down further :) My plan is to diamond hand until Q4 when we see more lights of the primary listing in HKSE.
ReplyDeleteI agreed on all your points above except for the 4th, the 0 Covid policy is necessary because PRC is preparing their 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Oct 16th, they won't want any outbreak prior to that, but they should gradually relaxing after that, remember how they suceed in handling the Winter Olympic last year? Actually the lock down should have little impact on Baba since their ecommerce can make up the shortform of other segment.
Another potential catalyst will be the Ant IPO...I "guess" Softbank recent sold off of Baba shares is to reduce their controling stakes, that may be the condition before the green light :p
hows your retirement so far? Thanks for the input. Yes, i think you are most probably right about the tough stance due to the national congress coming up. Thus, this is more of a saving face move just before a big event more than anything else. Let's hope pragmatism gets the better of them after the congress. I initially thought lock downs will be good for the tech giants as well but the recent financial reporting showed other wise in the short term.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/29/chinese-tech-giants-post-worst-growth-on-record-due-to-zero-covid.html
Ah, Ant financial, how can i forgot about that.
Diamond hand! Let's do it. To quote schooling. I am showing a " moment of weakness".
Still surviving...haha...remember I ever shown my daily routine? It was like that basically...dejavu every day except I have 1 hr+ daily fitness training...but my weight is still as stubborned as 9988...not moving at the right direction as I wanted...with kid school holiday begining today, I can save my two trips daily driving and do other things :p
DeleteActually this month the SEC will starts examining their audit report in Hkg, hopefully all is well, not sure which audit firm Baba engaged, if the big 4, then I am optimistic that they are legit as in my work life...I dealt with them a lot and its very hard to sweep problems under the carpet, furthermore Baba has been listed many years, means they would have been audited many rounds....unlike those newly listing such as Luckin Coffee :p
Haha when you described it as deja vu, I hope you are enjoying it and not starting to dread living your life without a job.
DeleteWell, I do hope the audit goes well and Alibaba indeed did their due diligence when it comes to audit for the past years. Somehow I think this is all politically driven and they will definitely dig out some dirt, big or small to penalise the companies.
Yeah, I am enjoying and appreciating my life even more because I started seeing many things that I normally wouldn't bothered, for example, I seen many solo female runner along ECP, not that I am oggling, I just happened to run past many of them and can't help to think how safe our country is because at certain section, it was really quiet and a safety concern for them, thankfully there isn't any mishap so far, hopefully we all play our part, keep a look out of each other and keep our country safe, but I do want to advice fellow reader keep reminding your self to stay alert always and do not indulge too much in music in your headphone or earpiece.
DeleteBack to Baba, I just Googled, one article said Baba was audited by PWC, in my experience they are the most expensive audit firm and the second thoughest behind KPMG, if that is the case then it will be good news. However according to Adam Khoo, he said it's better for Baba to delist because it has been long depressed by all these delisting news and gets shorted heavily in NYSE, I kind of agreed, 长痛不如短痛, move back to HKSE and let the PRC investor 接盘. If big funds want to play Baba, come to HKSE 9988 and I am ready to seel them at $200 :p
Good to hear that you are enjoying and appreciating life more! I agree, u gain a new perspective in life as you go slower.
Deletehahaha, it's always good to get a fair dosage of good looking people thats for sure. At least i would look. Yes, SG has its fault but i am quite happy to be a Singaporean. Before I started working, I always thought grass is greener on the other side until I started travelling for work. I travel so much to the extent I hated going to Changi Airport. Hated it so much.
Whenever the broadcast on SIA plane says "to all Singaporeans and residents of Singapore a warm welcome home", I feel a warmth in my heart. Alot of Sg compare only based on their vacation experience but never really live overseas before to have a fairer comparison. Like how people will say JB so cheap. Of coz cheap lah, u divide by 3.2 leh but have you thought about the locals there? Their fresh grad earns the same number as our fresh grad but in ringgit.
Just my own opinion anyway, maybe because I am more easily contented. Who knows. Foolish people are happier sometimes.
Hahhaha, back to baba, if they can go through the audit, that is the best to be listed in NYSE and also main listing in HK. Best of both world. The number 1 thing for us is to pray for china reopening soon...at least thats how I view it. I also want to sell them at 200 leh!